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Use of Multiple Systems per Fund
Reliability vs. Curve Fitting
Diversification
Extensive Back Testing
Trading Frequency

TSP STOCK FUND TIMING SYSTEMS

SEASONAL SYSTEMS C-1 and I-2
These systems, optimized for the C Fund and separately for the I fund, pick the best 6-7 months to be invested in stock funds each year based on a comprehensive analysis of past historical seasonal patterns in those funds. The system also looks to ema cross-over trend information on a key proxy fund to confirm the seasonal readings. The system has a string of 18 winning trades in the last 19 years from October 1988. The system beats "buy-and-hold" by 12% per year and reduces Mdd by 20% based on a key proxy fund. This is an outstanding long term fund timing system that only provides for one switch each year between the TSP C and I Funds and the G Fund.

TREND SYSTEMS C-2 and S-1
These very reliable systems, optimized for the C Fund and separately for the S fund, are based on a balanced combination of two sub-systems each run against another two key proxy funds using a series of technical trend following indicators and confirming oscillators. The sub systems must confirm one another for a signal to be produced. There is no possibility for a lock-out. The system uses two separate sets of parameters (variables) and proxy funds for the C Fund and the I Fund.

TREND SYSTEMS C-3 and I-1
These systems, optimized for the C Fund and separately for the I fund, fit markets in sideways congestion while still retaining the ability to catch major breakouts and trends. The systems essentially receive their timing principles from the Dominant Market Theory and use ema's of market breadth and volume to develop confirming thrust oscillators for buy and sell conditions. Signals are further confirmed through a series of trend indicators drawn on a reliable set of three key bellwether proxy funds.

TREND SYSTEM S-2
Optimized for the small cap S Fund, this very simple system works well for all TSP funds but especially well for the small cap S Fund. The system is based on ema cross-over's of two key small cap proxy funds. The system will flash a buy when both proxy funds are on a buy and sell when both funds are on a sell. The buy conditions are slightly tighter than the sell conditions.

TREND SYSTEM S-3
This system, optimized for the small cap S Fund, creates a special clone of the Russell 2000 as a proxy fund for a balanced combination of two sub-systems based respectively on relative strength and stochastics with confirming oscillators. This is another system that follows the principles of the Dominant Market Theory.

TREND AND PATTERN SYSTEM I-3
This system, optimized for the EAFE International stock I Fund, is based on a series of non-correlated signals from the international value, small cap and developing markets. Signals are derived from objective patterns within the equity curves of the key international proxy funds. The signals are symmetrical on both the buy and sell sides, and like all other TSP Pilot systems, will not lock out. While this system excels for the I Fund, it also works very well when applied to the balance of the Thrift Savings Plan funds.

TREND SYSTEM F 1-3
These simple trend systems for the F (bond) Fund use a series of weighted RSI indicators on a total bond market fund and on an emerging bond market fund using a third bond market fund as a confirming proxy filter. The signals are symmetrical on both the buy and sell sides, and like all other TSP Pilot systems, will not lock out. The performance of the F Fund systems has very little impact on the performance of the TSP Pilot portfolio. In fact the G Fund is generally used to park funds when the stock funds flash a sell signal.

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TSP Pilot is a commercial service not associated in any way with the U.S. Federal government. TSP Pilot does not issue individual investment advice. TSP Pilot publications are prepared for informational and educational purposes only. Past stated hypothetical performance is not an indication of future performance.

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