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Overview of the TSP "Lifestyle" or L Funds
The new TSP L Funds are static, passively managed "buy-and-hold" portfolios that never change to match account balances or allocations to changing market conditions. While the TSP claims that they are "professionally managed," you could easily replicate each of their new L Funds yourself by simply combining the existing TSP funds into general "baskets" according to common risk levels.
By comparison the TSP Pilot Portfolios are a dynamically and professionally managed portfolio whose fund allocations and risk assignments constantly change with changing market conditions without emotionally "chasing performance." This is a fundamental and critical difference in investment posture--black and white (or red and green ;-) when it comes to your account's exposure to market losses.
The passive TSP L Funds will NOT protect your account from major losses when stock markets dramatically decline--often over long periods.
Had you been invested in those stock funds during 2000-2003 you would have lost up to 55% of the value of your TSP account's contributions! Just because you are younger doesn't necessarily mean that you would WANT to assume that additional market risk. We believe YOUR TSP portfolio should match YOUR investment risk/reward profile regardless of your time to retirement.
While Wall Street professionals kept saying over and over again "buy and hold and never look back...buy and hold and never look back," the market then proceeded to wipe out $8 trillion of investors wealth over the next three years.
Almost unbelievably, it was during those depressing bear market years when investors lost so much money and confidence that those same Wall Street professionals who preached "buy and hold and never look back!" were making their biggest salary bonuses in history. We now know why they didn't want you to look back!
While following the L Funds "may" provide a long term performance improvement for TSP participants who...
- Have little to no investment experience,
- Receive little to no professional guidance,
- Or normally keep most funds locked up in the safe-harbor, low-return, G Fund.
The performance of the L Funds will likely fall FAR short of the optimized, fund timed The TSP Pilot Portfolios in terms of both risk and return--especially during periods of dramatic stock market declines.
Performance
TABLE XXI
| TSP Pilot Portfolio vs. TSP L Funds, Timed and Un-timed (1989 - 2007)* |
| Portfolio |
Annualized Return (AR)5 |
Maximum Draw-down (Mdd)1 |
Ulcer Performance Index (UPI)2 |
Ulcer Index (UI)3 |
Standard Deviation (SD)4 |
| TSP Income Fund |
7.4% |
-4.2% |
1.7 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
| Timed Income Fund |
8.0% |
-3.4% |
2.3 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
| TSP 2010 Fund |
8.9% |
-19.4% |
0.7 |
4.4 |
1.9 |
| Timed 2010 Fund |
10.7% |
-6.4% |
3.7 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
| TSP 2020 Fund |
9.8% |
-29.0% |
0.6 |
7.2 |
2.5 |
| Timed 2020 Fund |
12.4% |
-11.5% |
3.1 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
| TSP 2030 Fund |
10.2% |
-35.1% |
0.5 |
9.4 |
2.9 |
| Timed 2030 Fund |
12.5% |
-10.4% |
3.5 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
| TSP 2040 Fund |
10.4% |
-40.9% |
0.5 |
11.5 |
3.3 |
| Timed 2040 Fund |
14.2% |
-16.9% |
3.1 |
3.4 |
2.6 |
| TSP PILOT Standard PORTFOLIO |
18.4% |
-8.0% |
6.0 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
Note: Look for a low UI and Mdd and a high Return and UPI as keys to best performance.
Note: Since the TSP L Funds were introduced in 2005, L Fund proxies were used for prior years.
* Database begins 9/1/1988. Some periods based on proxy funds and indexes.
Also see information on our Pilot Aggressive Portfolio.
In Table XXI we have provided the 19-year results of the new TSP L Funds with a series of performance and risk metrics. Included for sake of comparison to each standard TSP L Fund is a very basic, long-term market timing model.
Since the TSP's L Funds were just released in August of 2005, alternative proxy funds were used for this analysis; since the TSP L Funds are comprised of simple and static formulations, the chosen proxy funds would track almost exactly with the TSP's new offerings.
While our L Fund market timing models, provided for example only, are not as sophisticated as the TSP Pilot Portfolios, they do show the important benefit of adding even a very basic, long-term market timing signal to each of these new TSP L Fund portfolios.
In each case a basic, long-term computer timing model applied to each of the L Funds would have increased performance and decreased risk substantially requiring only about one switch per year from the L Fund to the safe-harbor G Fund.
These generic "timed models" show what a major impact market timing can have on performance and risk exposure. For each TSP L Fund you can see that the addition of a very basic timing model would have reduced the market risk (Mdd) by 50%!
Even following such a very basic long-term timing model would have saved TSP investors from the huge losses that would have occurred sitting through the devastating 2000-2003 bear market that began after the bust of the high-tech bubble.
Don't test the retirement waters alone. Put your TSP ship a league ahead by requesting your FREE ISSUE or by SUBSCRIBING at our special reduced rates today!
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TSP Pilot is a commercial service not associated in any way with the U.S. Federal government. TSP Pilot does not issue individual investment advice. TSP Pilot publications are prepared for informational and educational purposes only. Past stated hypothetical performance is not an indication of future performance.
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