TSP thrift savings plan
  Subscribe  |   FREE Issue  |   Current Advisory    |   Security    


 HOME

 About

 How it Works

 Pilot Portfolio

 Performance

 Fund Timing

 Fund Selection

 The Systems

 TSP Funds

 The L Funds

 FAQ's

 Fidelity Selects

 ETFs Program

 Glossary

 Disclaimer

TSP thrift savings plan


Over the past 22 years the TSP Pilot Portfolios outperformed all of the TSP "Lifecycle Funds"
(L Funds)
, by between 75% and 280% in net annualized return!

More importantly, TSP Pilot's performance occurred while accepting substantially LESS MARKET RISK. That reduction in risk allows TSP Pilot investors to sleep better at night while still taking fully optimized stock fund positions.

TSP Pilot's outstanding performance is based on professional fund timing and fund selection principles and techniques--the two hallmarks of TSP investment success.

  • Take out the Guesswork
  • Remove emotion from decisions
  • Maximize your returns
  • Lower your market risk
  • Sleep easy at night

How simple is it? Virtually any Thrift Savings Plan account holder can use TSP Pilot to improve investment results. No investing experience is necessary.

TSP Pilot provides specific recommendations for both a Standard and an Aggressive Portfolio to better match your individual risk profile.

TSP Pilot's advisories will tell you exactly which allocation and fund balance percentages to plug into which funds on the TSP website for your account completely simplifying the update process for you.

TABLE II

 TSP Pilot Portfolio vs. TSP Funds (1989 - 2011)*
Portfolio Annualized Return
(AR)5
Maximum Drawdown
(Mdd)1
Ulcer Performance Index
(UPI)2
Ulcer Index
(UI)3
Standard Deviation
(SD)4
C Fund 9.0% -55.3% 0.2 16.8 5.4
S Fund 9.6% -58.2% 0.2 20.1 5.9
I Fund** 3.2% -61.1% -0.1 24.1 6.0
F Fund 7.0% -6.5% 1.3 1.6 1.3
TSP Income L Fund 5.2% -11.7% 0.1 1.7 1.0
TSP 2020 L Fund 7.0% -35.3% 0.2 8.3 2.3
TSP 2030 L Fund 7.7% -42.4% 0.3 10.7 3.5
TSP 2040 L Fund 8.2% -47.5% 0.3 12.7 4.0
TSP 2050 L Fund 8.5% -52.4% 0.2 14.9 4.5
TSP PILOT Standard PORTFOLIO 14.9% -8.2% 5.6 2.5 2.4
TSP PILOT Aggressive PORTFOLIO 19.3% -17.2% 7.1 2.9 3.0
Note: Look for a low UI and Mdd and a high Return and UPI as keys to best performance. Also see information on our Pilot Aggressive Portfolio.
* Database begins 9/1/1988. Some early periods based on proxies for L and I funds. TSP L Funds portfolio compositions as specified by TSP on 1/12.
** Proxy for I Fund begins 1/25/96.
- The TSP L Funds were introduced in 2005. However, our performance for the L Funds begins on 12/31/88 to provide for a more useful assessment of the L Fund methodology. Fund proxies are used prior to 8/1/05. Actual performance for TSP L funds would be considerably worse than that shown if viewed from the actual L Fund inception date of 8/1/05.
- Charts, listings and data provided by www.FastTrack.net
- TSP Pilot performance assumes a very conservative assessment of subscriber execution timings based on average closing prices for the week following the original signal date to allow for email alert and other implementation delays. An earlier implementation assumption could improve performance further.

Throughout the entire 22 year history of the database (provided by www.FastTrack.net), the TSP Pilot Portfolios would have dramatically lowered the exposure of your TSP account to downside market risk. In fact the TSP Pilot Standard Portfolio would have exposed you to nearly the same market risk as the low volatility TSP Income L Fund, a portfolio invested mainly in bond funds.

Had those same TSP L Funds been available then, that would have given you 22 years of peace of mind. However, the average 22 year performance for the TSP Pilot Standard Portfolio would have been nearly triple that for the ultra-conservative TSP Income L Fund--greater reward with significantly less risk.

The most recent history shows a continuation of TSP Pilot's performance dominance over all of the TSP funds and portfolios.

Largely because of TSP Pilot's limited downside risk exposure during the long bear markets of 2000-2003, the TSP Pilot Portfolio produced a POSITIVE return of better than 11% while the TSP C, S and I Funds actually LOST 18-21%! Even the new, aggressive 2040 L Fund lost over 15% during that period (Table II)!

The same pattern repeated beginning in October 2007 when the TSP stock funds FELL over 50% in value--including some of the the TSP L Funds. In the same period the average TSP Pilot Portfolio was actually UP 6%!

In fact, over the 22 year history, the Ulcer Performance Index (UPI), which measures risk adjusted performance, was nearly 20 times greater for the TSP Pilot Standard Portfolio than for any of the new TSP L Funds. The UPI is perhaps the most important metric for evaluating true investment performance since because it measures total return in relation to the market risk accepted by a portfolio.

The truest professional measure of market risk, the Ulcer Index (UI), was even substantially lower for the TSP Pilot Portfolio then it was for the low volatility/low return TSP 2020 L Fund (8.3 vs. 2.5 -- 70% less risk) while the total return for the TSP Pilot Standard Portfolio was double the return for the TSP 2020 L Fund!

In other words the low UI market risk of the TSP Pilot Portfolio gives you the same comfort level of the TSP 2010 L Fund invested largely in the TSP G and F bond funds!

Essentially, TSP Pilot drastically improves the slope of the entire risk/reward horizon rather than simply shifting it to a different level.

Typically, TSP Pilot's effective fund timing puts TSP accounts largely in the stock funds about 60% of the time when the markets are in up trends while moving clients to the bond funds for the remaining 40% of the time when the markets are soft or falling. In order to minimize trades, the systems are designed to take advantage of intermediate to long-term trends.

Don't test the retirement waters alone. Put your TSP ship a league ahead by requesting your FREE ISSUE or by SUBSCRIBING at our special reduced rates today!

TOP   |   NEXT

TSP Pilot is a commercial service not associated in any way with the U.S. Federal government. TSP Pilot does not issue individual investment advice. TSP Pilot publications are prepared for informational and educational purposes only. Past stated hypothetical performance is not an indication of future performance. Charts, listings and data provided by www.FastTrack.net.


© 2004-2012 TSP Pilot, LLC. All rights reserved.
20940 Frederick Rd. #C-73
Germantown | MD | 20876 | support@tsppilot.com